Desde el inicio de las campañas al Congreso y la Presidencia, mucho antes de las recientes elecciones, ya se discutía la posibilidad de que tuviéramos presidente en primera vuelta. El primero que anunció que ganaría en primera vuelta fue Gustavo Petro, quien desde el inicio de su campaña y marcando un amplio margen de intensión de voto en las encuestas, le apostaba desde el comienzo a esa posibilidad, teniendo como aprendizaje las elecciones presidenciales del 2018, en las cuales fue ampliamente derrotado en segunda vuelta por más de dos millones de votos. De manera más reciente, Federico Gutiérrez, candidato que resultó ganador de la consulta de Equipo por Colombia, ha afirmado que su intención, al igual que Gustavo Petro, es ganar en primera vuelta. ¿Qué tan probable es que tengamos un presidente en primera vuelta?
Los resultados de las recientes elecciones al Congreso y consultas interpartidistas, dejan ver que el panorama de un ganador en primera vuelta es muy poco probable, con un censo electoral de 38.819.901 personas habilitadas para votar, tomando como referente el porcentaje de participación de la primera vuelta presidencial de 2018, en la cual participó el 54%, para estas elecciones correspondería a 20.962.746 votos, es decir, que el candidato que aspire a ganar en primera vuelta tendría que sacar aproximadamente 10.481.374 votos.
Si sumamos los votos de las tres consultas, 2.286.473 votos por la coalición Centro Esperanza, 4.142.937 votos por la coalición Equipo por Colombia y 5.806.278 votos del Pacto Histórico, nos da un total de 12.235.668 votos, quedarían en disputa 8.727.058 votos que no participaron en las consultas, los cuales buscarán capturar tanto los candidatos ganadores de las mismas, como los candidatos que quedan.
Se ve muy difícil la llegada del apoyo del Partido Liberal a la campaña de Petro, aunque un sector de este partido ya hace campaña por él; de la misma manera, el Partido Verde va dividido a la primera vuelta presidencial, un bloque se irá con Petro y otro acompañará a Fajardo hasta esta votación. Es posible que, ante la desinflada de la Coalición Centro Esperanza, Petro recoja algunos votos de los sectores de Centro y Centro Izquierda, pero en todo caso, insuficientes para ganar en primera vuelta.
La consulta del Pacto Histórico (PH) obtuvo 5.806.278 votos, de los cuales el 80% fue por Gustavo Petro, una votación de 4.487.551 sufragios, alrededor de 1.600.000 votos más de los que sacó en la consulta del 2018, y alrededor de 2.500.000 votos más que obtuvo en términos agregados la consulta del partido en comparación con la consulta de izquierda de 2018. Si comparamos la votación del PH en la consulta con los votos que obtuvo Petro en primera vuelta presidencial del 2018, esta tuvo un aumento de un millón de votos. En la elección del 2018 el crecimiento que tuvo Petro desde la votación de la consulta a la primera vuelta, fue de alrededor de 2 millones de votos. Lo más probable es que logre un porcentaje similar de crecimiento en este periodo electoral. Es decir, que podría estar llegando en primera vuelta a aproximadamente unos 8.000.000 o unos 8.500.000 votos, votación similar a la que obtuvo en la segunda vuelta del 2018. Le quedarían faltando alrededor de 2.000.000 de votos para ganar en primera vuelta.
Del lado de Federico Gutiérrez, el hacerse contar en las urnas, lo posiciona como la figura más fuerte de la derecha; con el descarte de la candidatura de Vargas Lleras, el que concentrará el apoyo institucional de los partidos tradicionales será Gutiérrez, lo cual le pone un pie en la segunda vuelta, pero lo deja muy lejos de ganar en primera. Con una votación de 2.160.000 votos, y un total de 4.142.000 votos por la Coalición Equipo por Colombia, le faltarían para ganar en primera vuelta más de 6.000.000 de votos; si sumáramos la votación de todos los partidos tradicionales, y de derecha, sin contar al Partido Liberal, nos daría alrededor de 8 millones de votos, que sumados a un porcentaje de votantes indecisos y que no votaron al Congreso ni por las consultas que se podrían considerar de centro derecha, no alcanzaría a lograr la cifra mágica de más de 10 millones de votos.
Los candidatos que faltan. En el caso de Sergio Fajardo, el sectarismo con el que la Coalición Centro Esperanza desarrollo su campaña, lo deja muy limitado para la consecución de apoyos distintos a los que ya tiene, puede que suba un poco la votación de la consulta, pero ya dejó de ser una opción de poder viable. Finalmente, la gran incógnita es Rodolfo Hernández, quien puede recoger cierto voto de opinión de descontento tanto de sectores de derecha como de izquierda, pero que no será una gran sorpresa en la primera vuelta, siendo poco probable que llegue a una segunda.
Según mis cálculos, es posible que veamos una distribución de esos casi 9 millones de votos que se sumarían para primera vuelta de la siguiente manera: unos 2.500.000 votos para Gustavo Petro, unos 3 millones para Federico Gutiérrez, 1.500.000 para Fajardo, igualmente 1.500.000 para Rodolfo Hernández, y los restantes 500.000 se distribuirán entre los demás candidatos sobrantes. Esto nos deja frente a un claro panorama de segunda vuelta presidencial, el cual será a otro precio y tendremos que volver a barajar.
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