Mucho se ha especulado hasta ahora sobre los posibles nuevos precios altos del barril de crudo internacionalmente, pero tal y como lo mencioné hace unos meses en mi columna “Aprovechar el Cuarto de Hora”, a medida que se desarrolla la tan anhelada reactivación económica, los recortes de la OPEP, que desde el 2020 redujo a casi 10 millones de barriles la producción, empezarán a aumentar; lo que junto a otros factores probablemente ocasione una baja (por no decir desplome) en los precios internacionales del crudo.
El antecedente 2020
Recordemos cómo era el panorama en el año 2020 previo a la pandemia del COVID-19, se iniciaba la llamada ‘Guerra de los Precios Bajos’ donde Arabia Saudita no solo amenazaba con aumentar su producción en casi 2 millones de barriles adicionales, sino que amenazaba con vender crudo con “descuentos” y así ganarle el mercado europeo a Rusia; por otro lado, este último, en cabeza de su presidente, Vladimir Putin, anunciaba que podía durar varios años vendiendo hidrocarburos a precios bajos.
Posterior a esto pasó lo imprevisible, y fue la pandemia del COVID-19 que cerró la mayoría de países del mundo, desde la actividad aeroportuaria, la automotriz y la actividad industrial en general, lo que generó un exceso de oferta de hidrocarburos sin que hubiese demanda para consumir las cantidades del producto y, peor aún, sin que hubiese lugares dónde almacenar el crudo. Lo cual obligo a Rusia, como a Arabia y en general a la OPEP, a acordar unos recortes en la producción mundial de crudo llegando a reducir casi 10 millones de barriles diarios; esto estabilizó en cierta medida los precios.
El contexto 2021
Con la reactivación económica, los países que acordaron en 2020 el recorte de crudo, empiezan poco a poco a “abrir el grifo”; muestra de ello es que el pasado 18 de julio se acordó que a partir de agosto de 2021 se aumentaría mensualmente la producción mundial de crudo en 400.000, hasta llegar a los 2,000.000 de barriles en diciembre; esto sumado a diversos factores como el aumento de Covid y variantes como la Delta en algunos países generará precios volátiles y con tendencia seguramente a la baja en lo corrido del segundo semestre de 2021.
Colombia tierra querida…
Tal y como en algunas otras columnas he expuesto, Colombia es un país frágil ante estos sucesos, pues no es un país petrolero, pero sí depende en gran medida del petróleo.
Preocupante es que, de cara a la necesaria reactivación económica y con la necesidad de implementar programas sociales, educativos y productivos, toque afrontar una caída de precios del crudo, pues no solo se dejaría de percibir recursos cuantiosos por conceptos de regalías, sino que, el dossier laboral y productivo de la industria petrolera en los territorios que generan empleos en mano de obra, bienes y servicios, así como inversión social, se vería afectado.
Preocupante también es que se nos pasó un corto periodo de buenos precios durante el primer semestre 2021, entre paros, bloqueos, y obstrucciones a muchos de los proyectos del sector hidrocarburos, precios que, en este segundo semestre, tal vez no serán tan estables por lo mencionado anteriormente.
Como si no faltaran problemas, también es necesario mencionar, que las últimas rondas de la Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos no han sido tan exitosas; en lo corrido del 2020, por obvias razones referentes a la pandemia, no hubo mucha intención de adquirir nuevos bloques, siendo que el país estaba prácticamente paralizado y, en lo corrido del 2021, hubo mucho menos ambiente por parte de las empresas de invertir su capital en un país frenado por los paros, bloqueos, la inseguridad jurídica y el temor de que en 2022 llegue al solio de Bolívar “la izquierda” que en sus discursos siempre se ha mostrado abiertamente detractora de la actividad petrolera.
Lo anterior es sumamente grave teniendo en cuenta que no hay pozos nuevos y el petróleo en Colombia tiene los años contados si no se invierte en exploración.
Por último, el panorama anteriormente descrito tendría un mejor escenario si el precio internacional del barril lo regula la oferta y la demanda de acuerdo a la apertura de mercados y economías, pero, si Arabia Saudita y Rusia quisieran retomar la guerra de los precios bajos del petróleo abriendo el grifo de forma desproporcional, vendiendo crudo con descuento y otras maniobras que mandarían en picada el precio del petróleo, que el Jesús Petrolero de Barrancabermeja nos coja confesados.
28 comentarios en “De bonanza y prospectividad: la mitad y la mitad”
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