La más reciente encuesta publicada el pasado miércoles por Revista Semana, deja ver movimientos en la carrera por la presidencia, entre esas, algunas de las más notorias es la caída de Petro, del 25% al 17%; a pesar de que, Revista Semana, se ha vuelto un medio con una postura política definida, y tal vez ha perdido algo de credibilidad, por medio de mi columna busco exponer, porque considero que Gustavo Petro no pasará a segunda vuelta.
Sea lo primero traer a colación las posiciones en que aparecen los principales precandidatos, y son:
- Gustavo Petro 17%
- Sergio Fajardo 7%
- Juan Manuel Galán 6%
- Rodolfo Hernández 5%
- María Fernanda Cabal 4%
- Federico Gutiérrez 4%
- Alejandro Gaviria 3%
- Oscar Iván Zuluaga 3%
Dicho esto, es necesario decir que aún no arranca la campaña Presidencial en forma, y muchos de estos precandidatos terminaran agrupándose en alianzas y bloques, salvo Gustavo Petro que, por su posición ideológica radical, no suele tener muchos interesados en unirse en su cruzada por la presidencia, pero si muchos que se unen en torno a evitar su llegada al solio de Bolívar.
2018
Para los que no tienen fresco el panorama de las elecciones 2018, cabe recordar que, en primera vuelta, Gustavo Petro, le gano al tercero en votación, el Profesor Fajardo, por escasos 252.000 votos, sacando Petro 4,855.09 y Fajardo 4,602.916. Algunos creen que si hubiese sido Fajardo quien pasaba a segunda vuelta, hubiese sido presidente, por la capacidad para agrupar más sectores políticos alrededor de él.
En esta ocasión Petro era prácticamente el único candidato que representaba lo opuesto al gobierno, al uribismo, y a la continuidad, pues otras campañas como la de Fajardo contaba con apoyos de personas del gobierno santos, de quien el país estaba ya cansado tras 8 años gobernando.
El centro izquierda
En esta ocasión la centro izquierda o el mal llamado “el centro”, que considero imposible de que exista, pues, o se está más hacia la derecha o hacia la izquierda, y en este caso, la coalición que busca apropiarse del extremo centro es la de la centro izquierda, es decir la coalición de la esperanza, que a pesar de empezar como una iniciativa sin mucho norte, se ha venido fortaleciendo, en especial con el golpe de opinión que significo la resurrección del nuevo liberalismo, así como, la eventual llegada de Alejandro Gaviria, que a pesar de que inició recolección de firmas, muy seguramente terminara haciendo parte de la consulta para ser candidato de esta coalición.
En este escenario esta alianza que claramente tiene más matices de izquierda podría agrupar, a sectores de opinión, progresistas y por qué no, gran parte del partido Liberal o por lo menos de sus militantes, sin importar a donde Cesar Gaviria salga a feriar el partido para su acomodo.
Esto ya le restaría por lo menos en primera vuelta, muchos votos de izquierda no radical, siempre y cuando, la coalición juegue bien sus cartas, con nombres frescos, y alterne la fórmula para que contenga voto político y voto de opinión.
Rodolfo Hernández
Lo anterior, tendría un defecto y es si la campaña del ingeniero Rodolfo Hernández llega a despegar, pues a pesar que también le podría quitar el voto alternativo a Petro, también podría quitarle bastantes a la Coalición de la Esperanza, pues ambos podrían terminar representando el voto protesta o voto de aquellos cansados de los extremos, y como dice el dicho, divide y vencerás, si este tipo de voto, se divide entre coalición de la esperanza y el ingeniero Hernández, podría Gustavo Petro pasar por en medio y ponerse en segunda vuelta.
Centro Derecha
Un panorama más fácil tiene la derecha en primera vuelta, pero más complejo si le tocara medirse en segunda vuelta con un candidato diferente a Petro, en primer lugar, porque pierden su principal arma que es ser el muro de contención de la llegada del comunismo a Colombia, en segundo lugar, porque, como todo gobierno genera desgaste, y este ha sido particularmente impopular hasta dentro de sus mismos electores y partido.
Más allá de esto, en el escenario de la alianza de derecha, seguramente irían a consulta, los candidatos fuertes, por un lado Federico Gutiérrez, de la Alianza de las Regiones, y por otro el ganador de la consulta interna del Centro Democrático; a pesar de que muchos quisieran una cara más fresca, en una eventual consulta interpartidista, todos saben que el Uribismo, es el movimiento y partido más disciplinado del país, motivo por el cual, molerían en las urnas al contrincante, siendo el candidato de derecha, una vez más el que defina el Centro Democrático, estando entre Oscar Iván Zuluaga o María Fernanda Cabal, uribistas purasangre, y no más seudo uribistas que no asumen las banderas que los eligieron como el actual presidente.
Segunda vuelta 2022
Expuesto lo anterior, como siempre en el país de la polarización el país está dividido en dos: izquierda y derecha, y a segunda vuelta, como es costumbre pasara la derecha en bloque, pero no podrán pasar 2 o 3 izquierdas, o alternativos ( Petro, Coalición Esperanza y Rodolfo Hernández), si la variable que representa el Ing., Hernández, no le descuadra las cuentas a la coalición de la esperanza, podríamos ver una interesante segunda vuelta, entre las alianzas centro izquierda y centro derecha, y por fin espantar el fantasma del comunismo que representa Petro.
167 comentarios en “PETRO NO VA A SEGUNDA VUELTA”
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