Mientras que el gobierno nacional sigue en sus contradicciones, ideas trasnochadas antiempresa y con su delirio de crecer el estado a niveles insostenibles, lo cierto es que la incertidumbre es el factor principal que está golpeando la economía del país. Según una encuesta reciente de la ANDI, un gran porcentaje de proyectos nuevos e inversiones tanto a gran escala como en las pymes del país, y que estaban pensadas para hacerse durante este año, han sido suspendidas en los mejores casos, o canceladas en los peores, debido a que los empresarios están esperando más definiciones. Y definiciones no sobre a dónde va el gobierno nacional porque eso ya se sabe, sino hasta donde le va a permitir ir, el sistema de contrapesos de nuestro estado colombiano. Mientras el panorama a nivel nacional es ese, a nivel local es aún más incierto, ya que nuestra frágil economía regional se ha apoyado principalmente en algunos sectores que podrían verse seriamente afectados por esta política económica del gobierno del ¨cambio¨.
Es triste que luego de varios años liderando las cifras de desempleo e informalidad, en los últimos trimestres del año pasado estos indicadores que lograron mejorar levemente en nuestra ciudad en comparación con el resto del país terminen siendo flor de un día y volviendo a retroceder producto de la incertidumbre que generan los tropiezos y decisiones del gobierno nacional. Los anuncios que han hecho a lo largo de estos primeros meses de gobierno podrían pasarnos una cuenta de cobro bastante elevada en materia de empleo y crecimiento económico a finales de este año e inicio del próximo. Los continuos ataques del gobierno nacional al sector minero energético, que en Norte de Santander se ha convertido en la joya de nuestra economía regional, seguramente terminarán por darle un golpe de gracia a este sector que ha sido sin duda alguna el líder en materia de ventas, utilidades, creación de empleo entre otros. Si miramos otra de las actividades líderes en la creación de empleo y crecimiento económico en la región, como lo es la construcción de edificios residenciales, la conclusión es que será seriamente afectada.
Los cambios en la política de vivienda de MI CASA YA que fue tan efectiva en los gobiernos de Santos y Duque, además de una reducción en la financiación de estos subsidios, podrían frenar en seco la actividad edificadora, la cual como todos sabemos es una de las locomotoras del empleo, por hacer parte de una cadena de valor que impulsa otros sectores económicos relacionados. Por último y a pesar de la apertura de frontera, lo cierto es que el comercio viene dando señales de desaceleración a nivel nacional, y esta situación no es ajena a la ciudad. Aunque el ingreso de vehículos venezolanos en el primer mes del año pudo favorecer en algo las ventas del comercio local, lo cierto es que el comercio binacional aún no arranca en forma.
Si a todo lo anterior, le sumamos una reforma laboral que siga rigidizando el mercado laboral, con incrementos en las horas extras, nocturnas, de días sábados, domingos y festivos y la absoluta imposibilidad de contratar por horas; el sector comercio y de servicios que es tan importante en la economía regional se vería bastante afectado, poniendo aún más complicada la situación.
Se está formando una tormenta económica en el país con consecuencias probablemente muy negativas para nuestra región. Espero de todo corazón que las cosas cambien y que este artículo quede apenas como una equivocación de un ingeniero civil que no sabe de economía. Lo cierto es que sin duda necesitamos repensar la creación de valor en esta esquina de Colombia, y proponer ideas de negocio que nos permitan sortear estos tiempos tan turbulentos.
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