¿CUENTAS CLARAS?

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El domingo 29 de mayo le regresó el alma al cuerpo a muchos colombianos, que por un lado veían que las cuentas con Fico no daban para una eventual segunda vuelta, y que fueron sorprendidos al ver que la tendencia de crecimiento de Rodolfo Hernández se consolidó justo a tiempo para las elecciones.

Para hacer este análisis, debo inevitablemente, además de comparar los números del pasado domingo, traer a colación la votación de hace cuatro años; ya explicaré por qué.

Primera vuelta 2022

Gustavo Petro: 8.527.768 votos (40%).

Rodolfo Hernández: 5.953.209 votos (28%)

Federico Gutiérrez: 5.058.010 votos (23%)

John Milton Rodríguez: 274.250 votos (1,29%)

Enrique Gómez: 50.539 votos (0,23%)

 

Elecciones 2018

En la primera vuelta de 2018, Gustavo Petro alcanzó una votación de 4.855.069, lo que le dio para llegar al segundo lugar; en tercer puesto quedó Sergio Fajardo con una digna votación de 4,602.916, y omitiendo la votación de Vargas Lleras, que logró el cuarto lugar, cerró Humberto de la Calle con 451.151 votos. En segunda vuelta, como es sabido, ganó Iván Duque con 10.398.689 y Gustavo Petro quedó con 8.040.449.

Ahora bien, en primer lugar, hubo un crecimiento en el número de votantes, muchos de los cuales se reflejan en el aumento de Gustavo Petro que, en 4 años de alentar paros, capitalizó una población joven, inconforme con algunas políticas y medidas del gobierno nacional. Sin embargo, hemos podido ver al candidato Petro, tras la primera vuelta, jactarse de la gran votación que ha obtenido, comparándola con la de hace 4 años en primera vuelta, insinuando que, al igual que en el 2018, duplicará su votación el próximo 19 de junio. A pesar de esto, se puede ver un aire de preocupación en el rostro del candidato, y es que, si bien le hacen falta menos votos para llegar al umbral, posiblemente cada voto que le falte, de esos 2,000.000, será más difícil de conseguir, que los 5,500.000 que le hacen falta al ingeniero.

La razón para decir lo anterior es que a Gustavo Petro no le quedan muchas opciones para reunir los votos que necesita. Hace 4 años, en primera vuelta, se midió contra oponentes que, en el espectro político, podían apuntarle al mismo tipo de “votante”, y si se analizan los números, Petro en primera obtuvo 4 millones de votos, los mismos de Fajardo, y De La Calle 300.000. Estos votantes, en segunda vuelta, migraron mayoritariamente hacia el entonces candidato de la Colombia Humana, sumándole 8 millones de votos que, sin embargo, no le alcanzaron.

Sin embargo, en 2022 no ocurrirá ese fenómeno multiplicador de votos, toda vez que, por un lado, gran parte de esos 4 millones de votos de Fajardo de primera vuelta de 2018 ya migraron hace una semana a Petro, y eso se evidencia en la regular votación del ‘profe’, quien no superó el millón de votos.  Por otro lado, en la primera vuelta de este 2022 no hubo presencia de un liberal como Humberto de la Calle y, como pudimos ver, los liberales que se tiran hacia la centro izquierda ya estuvieron con Petro en primera vuelta, bajo lo que denominaron Liberales Progresistas, liderados por Luis Fernando Velasco, es decir, esos votos ya estaban en rebeldía con la decisión de César Gaviria, por lo que ya están sumados.

Por último, un tipo de votante, que más allá de izquierda o derecha, era votante indignado con el establecimiento, y con anhelo de cambio, le fue arrebatado a Petro por “el viejo Rodolfo”. Al igual que señala Gabriel García Márquez en un aparte de la novela el ‘Amor en los tiempos del cólera’, cuando se refiere a los polvos: “los que no se usan por cualquier causa, propia o ajena, voluntaria o forzosa, se pierden para siempre”, podríamos decir que eso le pasó a Gustavo Petro con una gran porción de sus votos protesta o anti-establecimiento, en el momento en que empezó a adherir a su campaña a lo más corrupto de la clase política: se le perdieron para siempre.

Segunda vuelta 2022

Lo que podría esperarse para segunda vuelta es que Rodolfo Hernández arranque con 6 millones de votos; respecto a los votos de Fico, (5.069.448), muchos optimistas quisieran endosar el 100% de estos, pero yo prefiero ir por lo bajo, contando unos 3,800.000 de esos 5 millones; en primera medida, porque seguramente algunos preferirán votar en blanco, y algún puñado de políticos migrará adonde Gustavo Petro, después de acordar la respectiva porción de burocracia.

De igual forma, Rodolfo Hernández seguramente podrá sumar 300.000 votos de los votantes de Milton Rodríguez y Enrique Gómez, y si Fajardo finalmente se decide por apoyarlo, se traerá 350.000- 400.000 votos de los fajardistas de opinión. Lo anterior, pondría a Rodolfo con casi 10.500.000 (aprox), de 10.800.000 que se necesitarían para ganar, si el número de sufragantes fuese el mismo que en primera vuelta.

En cuanto a Gustavo Petro, arrancaría con 8.541.617 votos, y podrían llegarle nuevos votos,  muy graneados, de las adhesiones que ha venido haciendo tras la primera vuelta, como la exfórmula vicepresidencial de Sergio Fajardo; el exministro del interior Guillermo Rivera y la cabeza al senado del Nuevo Liberalismo, Mábel Lara; también podrá sumar el 40-50% de los votantes de Fajardo en primera, y seguramente, algunos gamonales de los partidos tradicionales, lo cual, considero, no suma más del millón y medio de votos. Poniendo a Petro en segunda con 10.000.000 de votos, o tal vez un poco más, podría pensarse que está cerca de su techo, pero aun así, la votación es cerrada, cada voto vale, y se definirá por “voto finish”.

 

 

 

EL GENERAL

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