El domingo 29 de mayo le regresó el alma al cuerpo a muchos colombianos, que por un lado veían que las cuentas con Fico no daban para una eventual segunda vuelta, y que fueron sorprendidos al ver que la tendencia de crecimiento de Rodolfo Hernández se consolidó justo a tiempo para las elecciones.
Para hacer este análisis, debo inevitablemente, además de comparar los números del pasado domingo, traer a colación la votación de hace cuatro años; ya explicaré por qué.
Primera vuelta 2022
Gustavo Petro: 8.527.768 votos (40%).
Rodolfo Hernández: 5.953.209 votos (28%)
Federico Gutiérrez: 5.058.010 votos (23%)
John Milton Rodríguez: 274.250 votos (1,29%)
Enrique Gómez: 50.539 votos (0,23%)
Elecciones 2018
En la primera vuelta de 2018, Gustavo Petro alcanzó una votación de 4.855.069, lo que le dio para llegar al segundo lugar; en tercer puesto quedó Sergio Fajardo con una digna votación de 4,602.916, y omitiendo la votación de Vargas Lleras, que logró el cuarto lugar, cerró Humberto de la Calle con 451.151 votos. En segunda vuelta, como es sabido, ganó Iván Duque con 10.398.689 y Gustavo Petro quedó con 8.040.449.
Ahora bien, en primer lugar, hubo un crecimiento en el número de votantes, muchos de los cuales se reflejan en el aumento de Gustavo Petro que, en 4 años de alentar paros, capitalizó una población joven, inconforme con algunas políticas y medidas del gobierno nacional. Sin embargo, hemos podido ver al candidato Petro, tras la primera vuelta, jactarse de la gran votación que ha obtenido, comparándola con la de hace 4 años en primera vuelta, insinuando que, al igual que en el 2018, duplicará su votación el próximo 19 de junio. A pesar de esto, se puede ver un aire de preocupación en el rostro del candidato, y es que, si bien le hacen falta menos votos para llegar al umbral, posiblemente cada voto que le falte, de esos 2,000.000, será más difícil de conseguir, que los 5,500.000 que le hacen falta al ingeniero.
La razón para decir lo anterior es que a Gustavo Petro no le quedan muchas opciones para reunir los votos que necesita. Hace 4 años, en primera vuelta, se midió contra oponentes que, en el espectro político, podían apuntarle al mismo tipo de “votante”, y si se analizan los números, Petro en primera obtuvo 4 millones de votos, los mismos de Fajardo, y De La Calle 300.000. Estos votantes, en segunda vuelta, migraron mayoritariamente hacia el entonces candidato de la Colombia Humana, sumándole 8 millones de votos que, sin embargo, no le alcanzaron.
Sin embargo, en 2022 no ocurrirá ese fenómeno multiplicador de votos, toda vez que, por un lado, gran parte de esos 4 millones de votos de Fajardo de primera vuelta de 2018 ya migraron hace una semana a Petro, y eso se evidencia en la regular votación del ‘profe’, quien no superó el millón de votos. Por otro lado, en la primera vuelta de este 2022 no hubo presencia de un liberal como Humberto de la Calle y, como pudimos ver, los liberales que se tiran hacia la centro izquierda ya estuvieron con Petro en primera vuelta, bajo lo que denominaron Liberales Progresistas, liderados por Luis Fernando Velasco, es decir, esos votos ya estaban en rebeldía con la decisión de César Gaviria, por lo que ya están sumados.
Por último, un tipo de votante, que más allá de izquierda o derecha, era votante indignado con el establecimiento, y con anhelo de cambio, le fue arrebatado a Petro por “el viejo Rodolfo”. Al igual que señala Gabriel García Márquez en un aparte de la novela el ‘Amor en los tiempos del cólera’, cuando se refiere a los polvos: “los que no se usan por cualquier causa, propia o ajena, voluntaria o forzosa, se pierden para siempre”, podríamos decir que eso le pasó a Gustavo Petro con una gran porción de sus votos protesta o anti-establecimiento, en el momento en que empezó a adherir a su campaña a lo más corrupto de la clase política: se le perdieron para siempre.
Segunda vuelta 2022
Lo que podría esperarse para segunda vuelta es que Rodolfo Hernández arranque con 6 millones de votos; respecto a los votos de Fico, (5.069.448), muchos optimistas quisieran endosar el 100% de estos, pero yo prefiero ir por lo bajo, contando unos 3,800.000 de esos 5 millones; en primera medida, porque seguramente algunos preferirán votar en blanco, y algún puñado de políticos migrará adonde Gustavo Petro, después de acordar la respectiva porción de burocracia.
De igual forma, Rodolfo Hernández seguramente podrá sumar 300.000 votos de los votantes de Milton Rodríguez y Enrique Gómez, y si Fajardo finalmente se decide por apoyarlo, se traerá 350.000- 400.000 votos de los fajardistas de opinión. Lo anterior, pondría a Rodolfo con casi 10.500.000 (aprox), de 10.800.000 que se necesitarían para ganar, si el número de sufragantes fuese el mismo que en primera vuelta.
En cuanto a Gustavo Petro, arrancaría con 8.541.617 votos, y podrían llegarle nuevos votos, muy graneados, de las adhesiones que ha venido haciendo tras la primera vuelta, como la exfórmula vicepresidencial de Sergio Fajardo; el exministro del interior Guillermo Rivera y la cabeza al senado del Nuevo Liberalismo, Mábel Lara; también podrá sumar el 40-50% de los votantes de Fajardo en primera, y seguramente, algunos gamonales de los partidos tradicionales, lo cual, considero, no suma más del millón y medio de votos. Poniendo a Petro en segunda con 10.000.000 de votos, o tal vez un poco más, podría pensarse que está cerca de su techo, pero aun así, la votación es cerrada, cada voto vale, y se definirá por “voto finish”.
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Shop a wide collection of pod systems from leading vape brands including Lana, Vapetape, RELX, Elf Bar, and ONEM. All vape products is selected for excellent flavor and smooth performance.
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Wholesale opportunities are also available. Wholesale buyers can buy 50 or more products at competitive reseller rates. Low minimum order requirements support resellers to grow their vape business.
SGVapeDeliveryShop also publishes educational blog articles covering topics such as Singapore vape regulations, low versus high nicotine, and vape safety. The blog posts help customers make informed decisions.
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Singapore Vape Delivery Shop is a leading vape retailer in Singapore, providing genuine disposable vapes, vape pods, vape devices, and vape accessories. Our shop does not sell K Pods, focusing exclusively on legal vape products.
Shop a wide collection of vape devices from trusted manufacturers including Lana, Vapetape, RELX, Elf Bar, and ONEM. Every product is selected for long-lasting satisfaction.
Top sellers include Lana Ultra 2 16000 Puffs, RELX Infinity Pod, Elf Bar Ice King Pro 45000 Puffs, Lana Pen Plus 9000 Puffs, and ONEM Pod 15000 Puffs. These disposable vapes offer high performance and premium vaping experiences.
New products include Vapetape Engage, Elf Bar Ice King Pro 45000 Puffs, Lana Pix 20000 Puffs, ONEM Pod 15000 Puffs, RELX Creator 22000 Puffs, and Elf Bar Raya S1 15000 Puffs. Many models are offered at discounted prices.
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Bulk orders are also supported. Wholesale buyers can purchase large orders at competitive reseller rates. Wholesale pricing help businesses to expand their inventory.
The online store also publishes educational blog articles covering topics such as Singapore vape regulations, low versus high nicotine, and vape safety. The blog posts provide useful information.
Shopping online is easy for every customer. Complete your order online and have authentic vape products delivered directly to your door. SGVapeDeliveryShop focuses on delivering quality vaping solutions with reliable delivery and trusted products.
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Enjoy additional savings when ordering multiple products. Orders of 6 pieces or more receive $5 OFF. Save $10 on orders of 11+ products. Customers receive free shipping for purchases over $300.
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SGVapeDeliveryShop is a trusted online vape store in Singapore, specializing in premium vape products for every type of user. Our shop does not sell K Pods, providing only authentic vape products.
Shop popular vape devices from leading vape brands including Elf Bar, Vapetape, Lana, RELX, and ONEM. Each device is tested for quality, performance, and reliability.
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Popular products include Double Happiness Nanyang Soft Pack, Manchester Sapphire Blue Dubai Edition, Manchester Special Edition Flow Red Dubai Version, Manchester Blue Crush Dubai Version, Dunhill Blue UK Version, Dunhill Red UK Version, Benson & Hedges Gold, and Zhongnanhai. Selected products are supplied in 10-pack cartons.
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SG Vape Delivery Shop is a reliable vape supplier in Singapore, offering premium disposable vapes, vape pods, vape devices, and vape accessories. The store never offers K Pods, selling only legal vape products.
Shop a wide collection of pod systems from well-known brands including Lana, Vapetape, RELX, Elf Bar, and ONEM. All vape products is selected for long-lasting satisfaction.
Customer favorites include Elf Bar Ice King Pro 45000 Puffs, ONEM Pod 15000 Puffs, Lana Ultra 2 16000 Puffs, RELX Infinity Pod, and Lana Pen Plus 9000 Puffs. These vape devices are known for smooth draws and rich taste.
The latest arrivals include Vapetape Engage, Elf Bar Ice King Pro 45000 Puffs, Lana Pix 20000 Puffs, ONEM Pod 15000 Puffs, RELX Creator 22000 Puffs, and Elf Bar Raya S1 15000 Puffs. Many models are offered at discounted prices.
Vapetape Engage features a versatile open pod platform. Suitable for both beginners and experienced users, it delivers consistent vapor production with user-friendly operation.
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Reseller programs are also available. Wholesale buyers can purchase 50 or more products at discounted pricing. Bulk purchase options help businesses to start selling vape products.
The online store also includes informative resources covering topics such as vaping laws in Singapore, nicotine strength comparisons, and vape ingredients. The blog posts answer common vaping questions.
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